Illinois closed out November with a notably strong month for state revenues, according to the latest update from the Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability (COGFA). While some gains were expected — and others were one-time in nature — several categories significantly outpaced projections, offering state budget officials a welcome dose of good news.
Income Taxes Surge Beyond Expectations
After dipping slightly in October, personal income tax receipts rebounded sharply in November. Collections rose 8.1 percent compared to the same month last year, adding roughly $144 million. Corporate income tax receipts were even more striking, soaring by 112 percent — a year-over-year increase of about $150 million.
Once routine transfers and refund fund contributions were accounted for, the state still saw substantial net gains: personal income taxes grew by $122 million and corporate income taxes by $120 million.
COGFA also highlighted a significant windfall: the final required transfer from the refund fund into the General Revenue Fund came in $250 million higher than budgeted. That unexpected cushion could prove valuable as the fiscal year progresses.
Amnesty Program and Estate Tax Add to the Upswing
A portion of the revenue spike can be attributed to the state’s tax amnesty program. So far, the program has generated $71 million in personal income taxes and $47 million in corporate taxes. The state had projected $240 million in total amnesty revenue, and early reports indicate collections are on pace to meet that target — though these dollars are one-time and will need to be replaced in future budgets.
Illinois also saw a large bump in estate tax revenues. November receipts totaled $180 million, tripling last year’s tally of $60 million.
Sales Tax Drop Likely Just a Timing Issue
The lone soft spot in the report came from sales tax collections, which dipped 3.5 percent compared to last November — about $35 million. The decline marked the first reduction after nine straight months of growth.
But COGFA cautioned that the downturn may not reflect a true drop in consumer activity. Due to the calendar alignment this year, including just one additional receipting day from early December would have flipped the decline into a 7.6 percent increase. The late November Thanksgiving holiday also delayed the deposit of “Black Friday” sales taxes into December rather than November. Because sales tax deposits lag behind actual retail activity, analysts say at least one more month of data is needed to understand the underlying trend.
Year-to-Date Numbers Remain Strong
Despite ongoing economic uncertainty, Illinois’ year-to-date revenue picture remains encouraging. Overall receipts for the fiscal year are up $951 million — an increase of 4.9 percent over the same period last year.
Sports wagering has contributed $74 million more than last year so far, and gaming revenues are up an additional $51 million.
The Governor’s Office of Management and Budget had reported in November that revenues were already running $193 million above forecast. With November’s added gains, the state’s fiscal outlook has improved even further.