The Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability (CGFA) released its January 2026 Monthly Briefing, offering an in-depth look at key budget and economic developments shaping the State’s fiscal landscape.
Estate Tax Receipts Surge
A standout trend in the January report is the sharp growth in Illinois estate tax collections, which have risen significantly compared with prior years. This expansion is attributed to rising asset values and increased household wealth, pushing more estates beyond the taxable threshold and contributing to higher overall receipts. The briefing includes a review of the estate tax’s structure and how market-driven trends are influencing state revenues.
General Funds Revenues: A Mixed Month
January General Funds revenues experienced a slight decline compared to the same month last year, with total receipts below the prior year’s monthly collections. However, when viewed on a year-to-date basis, total revenues remain ahead of last year’s pace, reflecting positive cumulative growth.
- Personal and Corporate Income Tax showed modest gains.
- Sales Tax continued to grow moderately.
- Federal Sources and Transfers-In declined for the month, highlighting volatility in these categories.
Tax Amnesty Update
The briefing provides an update on the State’s tax amnesty program that ran in late 2025. While amnesty receipts contributed meaningful short-term revenues, collections were slightly below FY 2026 budget expectations. Importantly, these revenues largely represent accelerated tax payments rather than new revenue, with implications for future fiscal years as typical receipts may shift later in the cycle.
Economic Indicators Snapshot
CGFA’s briefing includes current data on statewide economic indicators such as employment trends, regional inflation, consumer activity, and manufacturing metrics. These indicators provide context for revenue performance and broader economic conditions facing Illinois.
Intergovernmental Cooperation Report
The monthly report also highlights CGFA’s work on tracking federal fund receipts, appointments to boards and commissions, grant notifications, and other intergovernmental functions, demonstrating the agency’s role in supporting state and local government operations.
Bottom Line:
The January 2026 Monthly Briefing paints a nuanced picture of Illinois finances, with robust estate tax growth and cumulative revenue gains, a mixed month of General Funds receipts, and notable effects from short-term revenue initiatives like tax amnesty. These dynamics, alongside economic indicators, will continue to inform fiscal planning and budget oversight as the state progresses through FY 2026.
The full report is available via this link.